Changes in the trend of the hottest industry refle

2022-08-14
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Changes in industrial trends reflect the development of new opportunities

the China economic prosperity index for the third quarter of 2015 jointly prepared by the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of statistics was released on October 26. The China economy industrial prosperity index covers key industries in the industrial field, including equipment manufacturing, coal, petroleum, electric power, steel, non-ferrous metals, cement, chemical industry, household appliances, clothing, dairy products, etc

the boom monitoring results show that in the third quarter of this year, the industrial boom index fell slightly, and the operation difficulties of the two high-tech industries and industries with overcapacity further increased. However, the high-tech industry still maintained a strong growth momentum, the industrial investment structure was more optimized, and the development quality was improved

look at the shift of growth calmly

at present, China's industry is still in the process of shifting growth, and the industrial boom continued to decline in the third quarter. The monitoring results show that in the third quarter of 2015, the China Economic and trade industrial prosperity index was 92.3, down 0.5 points from the second quarter, which has fallen slightly for four consecutive quarters. The prosperity of the 11 key industries monitored fell compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the outlook of the steel and coal industries fell by 0.9 and 0.4 points respectively, with a large decline

affected by various factors at home and abroad, the downward pressure on industrial growth increased in the third quarter. Internationally, the global economic recovery is difficult and tortuous, external demand is sluggish, international competition is more intense, and the volatility of the bulk commodity market is intensifying. Due to the further decline of export orders, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises fell by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, which has been two consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline, and the decline rate was 0.9 percentage points higher than that in the second quarter. The prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals in the international market fell sharply, which had a certain impact on the operation of domestic oil, non-ferrous metals and other industries. From a domestic perspective, the characteristics of the phase III superimposed experimental machine, the impact of pipeline pressure on the pressure detection equipment platform continues to deepen, the contradiction of overcapacity in the industrial field is prominent, the lagging impact of the real estate market adjustment continues to appear, the growth rate of the automotive industry begins to shift, and the traditional growth momentum continues to decline

at present, the industry is under pressure, and the short-term fluctuation of growth rate has increased, causing some doubts. However, whether measured from the perspective of development trend or indicator monitoring, this has not changed the economic fundamentals, and there is no need to worry too much. First, the macro economy is in transition. Considering that China's economy has shifted from industry to service industry, the growth rate of service industry has accelerated and the industrial growth rate has slowed down, which is the general trend. Secondly, the industrial boom is still in the normal range, and the overall operation is stable. In the third quarter, the China Economic and Trade Commission industrial boom index was 92.3, equivalent to about 92% of the boom standard value (100) of the base period in 2003. According to experience, a boom level higher than 90% indicates that the industrial boom is at a normal level. In the third quarter, the China economic early warning index rose by 3.3 points over the previous quarter; The early warning index of 10 industries was flat or increased compared with the previous quarter (only the early warning index of steel industry fell to the blue light area of supercooling). Considering the shift factor of industrial growth, it is normal for key industries to operate in the light blue light area. Third, the decline of the boom is moderate and still within the controllable range. The monitoring shows that after further removing random factors, the China Economic and trade industrial prosperity index is 2.1 points lower than the index without removing random factors. Another component of this method is to make full use of our extensive understanding of the automotive market, and the difference between the two is basically the same as that in the second quarter (slightly increased by 0.1 points). This shows that the relevant steady growth policies such as expanding domestic demand, promoting effective investment, targeted tax cuts and the moderate relaxation of monetary policy marked by interest rate and reserve requirement reduction have played a positive role, delaying the decline of industrial prosperity to a certain extent

industry differentiation is more obvious

at present, China's industry is in a critical period of structural adjustment and the transformation of old and new kinetic energy. In the third quarter, the trend of industrial differentiation within the industry was more obvious, structural adjustment was advanced in an orderly manner, and new growth momentum was gradually accumulated

on the one hand, the production and operation pressure of industries with high and overcapacity continues to increase, presenting a situation of production decline, price decline and benefit deterioration. In terms of output, in the first three quarters, crude steel output fell by 2.1% and cement output fell by 4.7%. In terms of prices, in the third quarter, the producer prices of coal, oil, steel, cement and non-ferrous metal industries fell by 15.6%, 27.5%, 18.8%, 12.8% and 10.9% year-on-year respectively. In terms of benefits, in the third quarter, the total profits of steel, coal, oil and cement industries fell by 97.5%, 60.2%, 60.2% and 37% year-on-year respectively, significantly higher than the overall decline in industrial profits (a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%). In the third quarter, the sales profit margin of the steel industry was only 0.05%, the lowest in the industry, and the whole industry was on the verge of loss

on the other hand, technology intensive industries and industries related to consumption and environmental protection are booming. Data show that from January to September, the growth rate of added value of high-tech industries still reached 10.4%, 4.2 percentage points higher than that of industries above designated size. In the third quarter, the motorcycle chain damage was considered to occur at the first point when the chain elongation increased and was no longer accompanied by the load increase. The production of electronics, cultural and entertainment products and other manufacturing industries related to information consumption and cultural consumption continued to grow rapidly; The production of comprehensive utilization of waste resources related to energy conservation and emission reduction maintained a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the production growth of high-tech industries such as medicine, information and chemical manufacturing related to industrial structure upgrading continued to accelerate. The industries with relatively rapid profit growth are still consumption related manufacturing industries such as food, furniture, cultural, educational and entertainment products, as well as high-tech industries such as medicine and electronics, with profit growth rates of more than 10%

as the industrial boom ebbs and flows, the industrial investment structure continues to be optimized in differentiation: the investment in manufacturing industries such as food and clothing related to consumption upgrading continues to grow rapidly, especially the investment in the manufacturing industry of clothing and cultural and recreational products continues to maintain a growth rate of more than 20%; The investment in IT manufacturing related to informatization, environmental protection manufacturing related to energy conservation and emission reduction, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water continued to grow rapidly; However, the investment in coal, steel, oil mining and processing industries affected by overcapacity, energy conservation and emission reduction continued to decline year-on-year, and the momentum of blind expansion and extensive growth ceased

this shows that under the background of China's economy changing from factor driven to innovation driven, from investment driven to more consumption driven, and the whole society paying more attention to the construction of ecological civilization, industrial development is showing positive changes, and structural adjustment is moving in the direction expected by macro-control. For the industries with high-tech industries and overcapacity, the current adjustment is painful and difficult. Some enterprises are facing the test of life and death, but looking at the overall situation, this is the pain and even the price that must be borne by the industrial structure adjustment, which is conducive to the improvement of the quality of economic growth and the transformation of the development mode of our country

take advantage of the situation and accelerate the upgrading

looking forward to the fourth quarter, the industry will still face a more complex situation. Due to the sluggish global economic recovery, the export situation is still not optimistic; The risk of declining domestic investment inertia has not been eliminated, the contradiction of overcapacity is still prominent, the lagging impact of the real estate market adjustment is further spread, the trend of car shifting continues, and the industrial economy is still facing great downward pressure. In order to hedge against the downward pressure, China has taken macro-control measures such as interest rate and reserve requirement reduction, tax reduction and fee reduction, and the lag effect will continue to appear. A large number of recently approved engineering packages are expected to be implemented in the fourth quarter, which will also play a positive role in the smooth operation of the economy

without taking full account of the policy effect, through the model prediction, the industrial prosperity index in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year are 92.4 and 92.2 respectively, and the early warning index is 70.0 and 66.7, continuing the trend of stable operation. Among the 11 key industries, in the fourth quarter, the prosperity of six industries, including electric power, household appliances, clothing, equipment, cement, non-ferrous metals, added nano ink with specific nano particles for color printing will be the same as that of the third quarter, and the prosperity of five industries, including coal, petroleum, chemical industry, steel, dairy products, will be slightly lower than that of the third quarter

it is worth noting that the current task of de stocking and de capacity is arduous. In each month of the third quarter, industrial producer prices fell by 5.4%, 5.9% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively. This indicator has been falling year-on-year for 43 months, which is rare in history. This reflects that the situation of industrial overcapacity is still very serious. By the end of the third quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' finished product funds was 5.7%, down 1.4 percentage points from the second quarter, slowing down for four consecutive quarters, but still 4.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of main business income. This shows that enterprises have a strong willingness to destock, and industrial destocking has not yet ended

in the face of complex situations, we need to strengthen our confidence in development, adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, and must not waver in reform and transformation because of excessive concern about the decline of growth. On the one hand, we should pay close attention to the changes in the situation, continue to do a good job in interval regulation, precise regulation and contingent regulation, keep the industrial economy running within a reasonable range, effectively prevent risks, and provide necessary support for resolving deep-seated contradictions and problems such as overcapacity; We should firmly promote reform, give greater play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, including further giving play to the market's function of survival of the fittest, taking advantage of the situation to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, lose no time to accelerate the large-scale development of high-tech industries, stimulate the entrepreneurial and innovative vitality of the whole society to the greatest extent, and constantly improve the quality and efficiency of industrial development in the process of transformation and upgrading, It will provide more abundant kinetic energy for the stability and long-term development of China's economy

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